Incidence and Predictors of Heart Failure among Adult Ischemic Heart Disease Patients Who Had Follow-Up in Public Hospitals, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

Abstract

Abstract Introduction: Heart failure (HF) is a complex complication of ischemic heart disease that causes high morbidity and mortality. However, there is a dearth of information regarding its incidence and predictors, especially in underdeveloped nations where HF manifests in a variety of ways. Objective: To assess the incidence and predictors of HF among adult ischemic heart disease patients who had follow-up in public hospitals, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia, 2024. Methods: An institutional based retrospective cohort study was undertaken among 478 ischemic heart disease patients who had follow up in cardiac clinic at Tibebe Ghion and Felege Hiwot Comprehensive Specialized Hospitals from January 1, 2021, to December 30, 2023 within the study period of May 9 to June 10, 2024. Data were collected using kobo toolbox and analyzed in STATA Version 14. Kaplan–Meier was used to estimate the probability of incident heart failure survival time. Cox regression models were fitted and adjusted hazard ratios (AHRs) with 95% confidence intervals were reported. The proportional hazard assumption was checked using Global test and the overall model fitness using Cox Snell residuals. Predictors with a p-value of < 0.05 were considered as a statistically significant association with the occurrence of HF. Result: The incidence rate of HF among ischemic heart disease patients was 42.6(37.9% 47.8%) per 100 person years observations. Male sex (AHR=1.41(95%CI:(1.1-1.81), diabetes mellitus (AHR= 2.11(95% CI: (1.64-2.72), hypertension(AHR= 1.45 (95% CI:(1.13- 1.87), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AHR=2.51(95% CI:(1.06-1.88), dyslipidemia (AHR=1.44(95% CI:(1.12-1.85), and left atrium dilation (AHR=1.82 (95%CI:(1.4-2.36) were statistically predictive factor of HF. Conclusion The incidence rate of HF was high in the study area with its predictive factor of male sex, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, dyslipidemia and left atrium dilation. Key words: Herat failure, Incidence, Ischemic heart disease and predictors.